Cemindia Projects Q2 FY27 Earnings Call: Order Book Hits Record Rs. 32,715 Cr, Reaffirms 20-25% Revenue Growth (CEMPRO)

Strong Top Line, Margin Compression Persists

• Q2 FY 2026-2027 revenue of Rs.2,749 crore — up 25% YoY from Rs.2,195 crore in Q2 FY 2025-2026; EBITDA rose 15% YoY to Rs.280 crore, with margin at 10.2% vs 11.1% in Q2 FY 2025-2026; PAT grew 21% YoY to Rs.131 crore.
• H1 FY 2026-2027 revenue of Rs.5,470 crore — up 15% YoY; EBITDA margin at 10.3% vs 10.6% in H1 FY 2025-2026; PAT up 10.8% YoY to Rs.271 crore.
• Q2 margin ex-other income at 9.7% — management reaffirmed FY 2026-2027 full-year margin guidance of 10%+ ("around 10% on an average throughout the year") versus the analyst's 10.5% question, while cautioning that certification delays and delayed execution starts keep margins "always a challenge."
• Q2 revenue up ~1% QoQ vs Q1 FY 2026-2027 — better than the typical seasonal pattern where Q2 runs 10-15% below Q1; management suggested a work-mix effect (less monsoon-affected road work in FY 2026-2027) but did not confirm a ramp-up of end-FY26 order wins as the driver.
• Balance sheet as of 30 September 2026 — net worth Rs.2,619 crore, net debt Rs.773 crore (net debt-to-equity ~0.3x); ROE 27%, ROCE 33%, working capital 96 days, H1 FY 2026-2027 capex Rs.150 crore.
• Arbitration win of ~Rs.85 crore — additional claim payment received at Udhangudi in Q2 FY 2026-2027.

Record Rs.32,715 Cr Book; FY27 Inflow Target Set to Be Exceeded

• Order book at all-time high of Rs.32,715 crore — vs a typical Rs.20,000-21,000 crore; ~Rs.15,000 crore of orders secured in H1 FY 2026-2027; management expects the FY 2026-2027 order inflow target of Rs.25,000 crore will "definitely be achieved and possibly exceeded."
• Rs.5,968 crore of new orders since start of Q2 FY 2026-2027 — Rs.3,487 crore in Q2 plus Rs.2,481 crore in October 2026; Q2 inflows included a ~Rs.1,000 crore data center order in Andhra Pradesh from the group company, Damla Port ~Rs.800 crore, Project Varsa Outer Harbour for the Indian Navy ~Rs.700 crore, and a Rs.231.35 crore JSW contract.
• October 2026 (Q3 FY 2026-2027) inflows of ~Rs.2,400 crore — Jaipur Metro Rs.781 crore, K-Ride Bangalore Rs.660 crore, and a Rs.1,000+ crore job at Dhubri, Assam from the group company; no tenders currently at L1 stage.
• Bid pipeline of ~Rs.1,30,000 crore (Rs.1.38 lakh crore cited) — entirely external: marine ~Rs.25,000 crore, road/rail tunnels Rs.25,000 crore, underground metro Rs.6,000 crore, PSP Rs.10,000 crore, elevated metro ~Rs.5,000 crore; nuclear ~Rs.1,25,000 crore also cited; internal/group pipeline is additional and unquantified.
• Group concentration is high — group entities account for 53-54% of the order book (Q2 FY 2026-2027) and contributed 70+% of order inflows over the trailing two-three quarters; H1 FY 2026-2027 revenue split was ~35-36% group, with management expecting the mix to gradually converge toward the order book composition.
• Execution progress — Badawan Port work restarted after ~1.5 years of no progress; CMRL and Bangalore Metro at verge of completion; Ulangudi handed over; Bangladesh project substantially completed with payment received; ADNOC job in Abu Dhabi progressing well; Pune Metro and Delhi Metro commenced.

New Segment Scaling, But Revenue and Margin Profiles Still Unproven

• Data center is ~15% of order book value — as of 30 September 2026 (Q2 FY 2026-2027); work in hand close to Rs.5,000-6,000 crore, with management pursuing additional group opportunities beyond Mumbai (including Gujarat).
• ~6 data centers under execution — 2 at Vizag and 4 at other locations, plus a few more just started in Gujarat; precast completed up to 8 of 10 storeys on the first two, with MEP vendors nearly finalized and orders placed.
• Revenue ramp hinges on MEP scaling — civil works are ~20% of project value with the electromechanical package at ~80%; civil execution spans 18-24 months, erection of the first data centers expected to start January-February 2027, and the CFO guided to MEP-driven revenue traction in Q4 FY 2026-2027.
• Data center margins expected not to exceed 10% (period unspecified) — within the company's typical segment margin range of 8-13%; underground and marine segments command better margins; management declined to predict the segment's margin profile until execution trends are visible.
• MD Jayanta Basu said volumes will grow "quite substantially" — given strong daily inquiry flow, but the company will initially confine itself to data center jobs within group activity; no quantified revenue contribution or incremental inflow guidance was disclosed.

Rs.1,400 Cr Raise Funds a Shift to Rs.10,000 Cr-Plus Projects

• Rs.1,400 crore QIP completed in October 2026 (FY 2026-2027) — 1.26 crore shares issued at Rs.1,108 per share; bids of ~2.3x the Rs.1,000 crore base deal size from domestic mutual funds and other financial investors; proceeds earmarked for capex, repayment of certain borrowings, working capital, and general corporate purposes.
• Management is pursuing big-ticket projects of Rs.10,000 crore plus — which attract limited competition and can deliver good margins with the right technique and job knowledge; the company has progressed from Rs.20-40 crore jobs to Rs.1,000 crore-scale projects and now targets Rs.3,000-4,000 crore-plus jobs (FY 2026-2027).
• Further capex of Rs.150-200 crore guided for the remainder of FY 2026-2027 — on top of Rs.150 crore in H1; if a large-diameter TBM job is secured, incremental capex "can go up to another Rs.1,500 crores," with CFO Nitesh Sharma confirming the major chunk would fall in FY 2027-2028 given 14-16 months of TBM deployment lead time.
• TBM supply risk downplayed — MD Jayanta Basu stated "China cannot stop us doing business"; TBMs can be sourced from countries other than China, which Cemindia is pursuing; at least 4 other TBM tenders are being closely worked on beyond the Bangalore job, with "very likely chances" at least one is won (timeline unspecified).
• ROE dilution acknowledged — CD Research's Nipur Kemka estimated ROE may fall to ~17% in FY 2027-2028 from 28% in FY 2025-2026; MD Jayanta Basu said the company has to "live with" near-term dilution as a short-term-vs-long-term trade-off; CFO indicated scale-up may resume post 24 months (from ~FY 2028-2029 onwards) once large machines begin contributing.
• Rs.5,000 crore enabling approval is "just an enabling one" — CFO clarified it is not an imminent dilution; a prudent funding call will be taken based on pipeline conversion, with enough balance-sheet headroom to raise leverage.

Rs.50,000 Cr Addressable Within Group Capex; No L2 Price-Matching

• Citing the Adani Group's committed capex of close to Rs.2 lakh crore every year for the next 5 years — analyst Sunil Shah asked about the addressable opportunity; MD Jayanta Basu estimated around Rs.50,000 crore of this planned capex is addressable for Cemindia.
• MD Jayanta Basu confirmed total potential of close to Rs.1,30,000 crore — from business outside the group (period unspecified) plus the Rs.50,000 crore addressable within the Adani Group.
• Port business order book stands at Rs.7,500 crore — of which Rs.1,500 crore pertains to Wadhwan Port (position as of Q2 FY 2026-2027, confirmed by MD Jayanta Basu and CFO Nitesh Sharma).
• No PSU-style L2 price-matching mechanism exists within the Adani Group — MD clarified each Adani company has its own management protecting its business interests, work is awarded via competitive bidding, and such price-matching "has not happened ever so far."
• Adani tunnel order remains uncertain — MD declined to comment on whether the order will be awarded to the Adani group ("neither I am bidding the job, neither I am giving the job"), but stated there is a "high possibility" Cemindia gets the job if the group wins; no award timeline was provided; funds can be redeployed across 6-7 pipeline jobs if it does not materialize.
• New Bombay Phase 2 in advanced discussions — Adani is in advanced discussions with prospective bidders, with Cemindia among them; management hopes work will start by Q3 or Q4 FY 2026-2027.

FY27 Guidance Held; Growth Payback Skewed to FY28

• FY 2026-2027 revenue growth guidance maintained at 20-25% — reaffirmed by management on the Q2 call; MD Jayanta Basu said the effect of work in hand and work expected will come through in FY 2027-2028, with no much incremental benefit expected in FY 2026-2027; H1 guidance (revenue and margin) maintained.
• CFO guided to at least a 25% top-line CAGR over the next three years — FY 2027-2028 through FY 2029-2030, responding to a question citing top-line growth from Rs.5,000 crore to Rs.10,000 crore over the last 4-5 years.
• Margin bridge hinges on new jobs converting — recent dilution attributed to jobs not yet reaching the threshold limit to declare margin, including Vadhavan Port; newly secured jobs (Munger, K-Ride, DMRC Pune) will convert to margin after one or two quarters, i.e., around Q4 FY 2026-2027 to Q1 FY 2027-2028.
• Wadhwan Port: construction has started, but no revenue guidance — management declined to provide a revenue-contribution timeline or revenue potential, stating it would "not be fair" to give revenue guidelines at this stage and that execution pace "needs to be seen."
• Mechanization over manpower — MD contrasted a Rs.1,500 crore building job requiring ~2,500 laborers versus ~500 for a Rs.1,500 crore underground metro; management consciously avoids labor-intensive segments and is prioritizing mechanized jobs and technology upgrades, alongside expanding from 4-5 to 7-8 divisions with capable leaders.
• No quantified incremental ROCE or cash generation targets were provided for the 3-5 year horizon raised by the analyst; management committed only that QIP proceeds will be "prudently used for the company's benefit."