Q2 FY27 results analysis · October 30, 2026
IOC Q2 FY27 Results Analysis: PAT Surges 184%, Margin Expands 462 bps
+184.2%PAT year on year, Rs. 21,630.03 Cr
Source: Quarterly results filing (NSE)
Quick summary
IOC's Q2 FY27 numbers came in strong, with revenue of Rs. 262,935.58 Cr (+29.53% YoY) and PAT growth of +184.21% YoY. Here's a quick read of what worked, what to watch, and what management said.
Quick Details
| Results date | October 30, 2026 |
|---|---|
| Revenue (Q2) | Rs. 262,935.58 Cr (+29.53% YoY) |
| PAT (Q2) | Rs. 21,630.03 Cr (+184.21% YoY) |
| EBITDA margin | 12.55% (+462 bps YoY) |
| EPS (Q2) | Rs. 15.71 (+184.08% YoY) |
Quarter Snapshot
IOC delivered record quarterly results with standalone PAT of Rs.21,630.03 cr (+184.21% YoY) and EBITDA margin of 12.55% (+462 bps YoY), swinging from a Q1 loss as all four segments turned sharply positive. Earnings quality flags remain: CFO/PAT of 0.52x on a Rs.38,069 cr inventory build, a deepening LPG buffer of Rs.(32,505.69) cr, and other income/deferred tax tailwinds. FY27 capex and throughput targets are tracking behind pro-rata pace, requiring a doubling of execution in H2.
Q2 FY27 Expectations vs Results
| Driver | Expected before results | What happened | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | "in-line to ahead" on volumes + crude pass-through | +29.53% YoY on +4.93% domestic volume growth | Played out |
| Continued inventory gains on $83→$100+ crude | "argue for continued inventory gains" | Filing quantifies none; changes-in-inventories near-flat at +Rs.195.13 cr | Not observable |
| Refining margin strong early, eroding by September | "strong cracks… negative on medium-sour by September" | Record EBITDA/margins; exit-rate unverifiable (no GRM) | Partially |
| FX & interest headwind extends | "extends the exchange-loss headwind; higher interest-cost line again" | FX loss Rs.101.25 cr H1 (vs Rs.2,431.84 cr H1 FY26); finance costs +46.88% QoQ — FX) / Partially (interest | Contradicted |
| LPG under-recovery moderating (~Rs.250/cylinder expected) | "under-recovery per cylinder was moderating" | Buffer deepened; implied fresh Q2 under-recovery ≈ Rs.6,397.25 cr | Contradicted |
| Throughput tracking to 77 MMTPA | "supported by industry processing growth" | H1 37.273 MMT; Q2 18.108 — run-rate slipped | Partially |
| Capex step-up needed from Q1's 19.76% | "requires a step-up" | H1 33.3% of target — improved but behind pro-rata | Partially |
Read our full results preview.
Management Guidance vs Delivery
| What management said | Where | What happened | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Capex Rs.32,700 cr for FY26-27 | Q1 FY27 call (1 Aug 2026) | H1 cash capex Rs.10,898.45 cr = 33.3% of target — behind 50% pro-rata, though up from 19.76% at Q1 | Stretch |
| Refining throughput 77 MMTPA standalone FY26-27 | Q1 FY27 call (revised from 75) | H1 37.273 MMT; H2 requires 19.86 MMT/quarter avg vs Q2's 18.108 | Stretch |
| "Refining margins expected to remain high in next 1 or 2 years" | Q4 FY26 call (19 May 2026) | Standalone EBITDA Rs.32,998.14 cr at 12.55% margin; Petroleum Products margin 10.31% vs 5.95% YoY | Confirmed |
| Q1 loss driven by crude/product volatility pressuring marketing margins | Q1 FY27 filings/call | Q2 swung to record PAT with segment recovery across the board — directionally | Confirmed |
| Borrowing costs increased post-conflict | Q1 FY27 call | Finance costs +46.88% QoQ, +8.99% YoY | Confirmed |
Key Numbers, Quarter by Quarter
| Metric | Q2 FY26 | Q1 FY27 | Q2 FY27 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Refinery throughput | 17.609 | 19.165 | 18.108 |
| Pipeline throughput | 24.087 | 28.548 | 25.348 |
| Domestic product sales | 22.851 | 25.252 | 23.977 |
Key Investment Insights
Key Positives
- Standalone PAT of Rs.21,630.03 cr, up 184.21% YoY from Rs.7,610.45 cr, the largest quarterly PAT in the visible six-quarter trend
- Company-basis EBITDA of Rs.32,998.14 cr, up 104.88% YoY, with margin at 12.55% (+462 bps YoY)
- Normalized PAT (excluding Rs.3,621.51 cr LPG compensation, tax-adjusted) of Rs.18,687.01 cr, up 145.54% YoY
- Petroleum Products segment result of Rs.24,935.01 cr, up 121.27% YoY, recovering from a Rs.(2,872.56) cr loss in Q1 FY27
- Gas segment result up 408.30% YoY to Rs.1,237.67 cr; Petrochemicals result up 213.74% YoY to Rs.528.40 cr
- Borrowings reduced to Rs.1,16,578.02 cr from the June-2026 peak of Rs.1,41,453 cr; debt-equity at 0.54 vs 0.71 at Q1
- Net worth of Rs.2,17,380.26 cr, up 16.05% YoY and Rs.12,835.92 cr in the quarter
- H1 exchange loss on borrowings/leases of only Rs.101.25 cr vs Rs.2,431.84 cr in H1 FY26
Risk Factors
- CFO/PAT of 0.52x in H1 FY27 as a Rs.38,069.07 cr inventory build and Rs.8,956.98 cr receivables build absorbed operating profit
- LPG buffer deepened to Rs.(32,505.69) cr despite the Rs.3,621.51 cr compensation instalment, implying fresh Q2 under-recovery of ~Rs.6,397.25 cr
- H1 capex of Rs.10,898.45 cr is 33.3% of the Rs.32,700 cr FY27 target; H2 requires ~2x the H1 pace
- H1 refining throughput of 37.273 MMT trails the 77 MMTPA FY27 target; Q2 throughput of 18.108 MMT slipped QoQ
- Finance costs rose 46.88% QoQ to Rs.2,364.45 cr following the Q1 borrowings surge
- Board committees discontinued since 28 March 2026 and not reconstituted; minimum independent director requirement unmet throughout the period
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Disclaimer: This results analysis is published for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.