Q2 FY27 results analysis · November 04, 2026
NHPC Ltd Q2 FY27 Results Analysis: PAT Jumps 52%, EBITDA Margin Expands 395 bps
+51.7%PAT year on year, Rs. 1,549.09 Cr
Source: Quarterly results filing (BSE)
Quick summary
NHPC Ltd's Q2 FY27 numbers came in strong, with revenue of Rs. 4,482.55 Cr (+33.20% YoY) and PAT growth of +51.66% YoY. Here's a quick read of what worked, what to watch, and what management said.
Quick Details
| Results date | November 04, 2026 |
|---|---|
| Revenue (Q2) | Rs. 4,482.55 Cr (+33.20% YoY) |
| PAT (Q2) | Rs. 1,549.09 Cr (+51.66% YoY) |
| EBITDA margin | 64.18% (+395 bps YoY) |
| EPS (Q2) | Rs. 1.54 (+50.00% YoY) |
Quarter Snapshot
Q2 FY27 consolidated revenue grew 33.20% YoY to Rs.4,482.55 crore with PAT to owners up 51.66% to Rs.1,549.09 crore and EBITDA margin up 395 bps YoY to 64.18%, driven by newly commissioned Subansiri Lower and Parbati-II capacity (Rs.1,231.64 crore provisional sales). Key watch items are the doubling of finance costs, a 62.90% receivables build, and both CERC tariff orders still pending, which keep the new-station sales provisional with notified-tariff upside ahead. Subansiri Unit 5 commissioning on October 23, 2026 keeps the FY27 capacity ramp on track against the Rs.15,000 crore capex target.
Q2 FY27 Expectations vs Results
| Driver | Expected before results | What happened | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Generation/PAF vs deficit monsoon ("−12.6%, lowest since 2015") | Behind on water volumes | Not disclosed in filing — not observable | Not observable |
| Revenue "behind on water, cushioned by the new-capacity ramp" | Revenue growth capacity-led | Reported +33.20% YoY but ex-provisional +3.28% | Played out |
| CERC orders pending; 80%-AFC booking persisted | Swing factor unresolved | Both orders still pending; Rs.1,231.64 provisional sales booked | Played out |
| Finance cost stays elevated YoY | Headwind | +100.28% YoY to Rs.556.17 | Played out |
| Working-capital pressure persists | Headwind | Receivables +62.90% vs Mar-26 | Played out |
| Teesta-V resumption reverses ~Rs.400 Cr annual under-recovery from Q2 | Positive | No quantum disclosed in filing | Not observable |
| One-time items: Rs.392.31 arbitral award (tariff-recoverable); Teesta-IV uncertainty | — | Award not addressed in filing; Teesta-IV provision Rs.231.30 confirmed from filing note and normalized — provision); award open | Played out |
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Management Guidance vs Delivery
| What management said | Where | What happened | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Subansiri balance 4 units by Dec 2026 (2,994 MW FY27 hydro) | Q1 FY27 presentation / earnings-call guidance | Unit 5 COD Oct 23, 2026; 1,250 MW of 2,000 MW (filing note 10) | On Track |
| FY27 consolidated capex Rs.15,000 Cr | FY27 capex guidance given on the Q1 FY27 earnings call | H1 consol capex Rs.5,685.06 = 37.90% of target | Stretch |
| Hydro regulated equity Rs.30,672–30,723 Cr by end-FY27 | Q1 FY27 investor presentation | Reg-deferral debit Rs.8,817.92 at Sep-26; end-FY27 level not derivable from a Q2 filing | Too Early |
| Parbati-II final CERC order by June 30, 2026 | February 2026 earnings-call guidance | Note 6(ii): still "pending final approval of the CERC" | Missed |
| Subansiri interim tariff ~2 months from March 2026 petition | Q4 FY26/Q1 FY27 call guidance | Note 6(i): still "pending approval of the CERC" | Missed |
| Pakal Dul (Dec 2026), Kiru (Dec 2026), Rangit-IV (Oct/Nov 2026) | Q1 FY27 presentation | No commissioning status in the Q2 filing | Too Early |
| New units and Teesta-V resumption "expected to progressively contribute to top-line growth" | Q1 FY27 results filing | Revenue +33.20% YoY, with Rs.1,231.64 provisional sales from new capacity | Confirmed |
| 80% conservative AFC booking is "just timing difference" pending CERC | Q3 FY26/Q1 FY27 calls | Both tariff orders still pending at Q2; provisional booking continues — mechanism intact; reversal timing unproven | Too Early |
| CERC unlikely to disallow beyond-control costs ("very less chances of any sort of disallowance") | Prior earnings calls | Teesta-IV Rs.231.30 provision shows implementation uncertainty is real on one project; no CERC disallowance evidence yet | Too Early |
Key Numbers, Quarter by Quarter
| Metric | FY26 | Q1 FY27 | Q2 FY27 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consolidated generation (MU) | 29,619 | 9,486 | not disclosed in filing |
| PAF % | 74.75 | 80.79 | not disclosed in filing |
Key Investment Insights
Key Positives
- Consolidated revenue grew 33.20% YoY to Rs.4,482.55 crore; standalone revenue grew 50.97% YoY
- Consolidated PAT attributable to owners grew 51.66% YoY to Rs.1,549.09 crore; normalized PAT growth of 67.91% after adding back the Rs.231.30 crore Teesta-IV provision
- Consolidated EBITDA margin of 64.18%, up 395 bps YoY and 238 bps QoQ
- Subansiri Lower and Parbati-II provisional sales of Rs.1,231.64 crore in Q2 vs Rs.217.69 crore a year ago; Subansiri Unit 5 (250 MW) commissioned October 23, 2026, taking the project to 1,250 MW of 2,000 MW
- H1 consolidated CFO of Rs.3,179.16 crore was 1.12x PAT; operating cash flow grew from Rs.1,583.21 crore to Rs.3,179.16 crore YoY
- Effective tax rate fell to 28.25% from 34.08% YoY
- H1 capex of Rs.5,685.06 crore is 37.90% of the FY27 Rs.15,000 crore target, with H2 requirement of Rs.9,314.94 crore only 8.38% above FY26 H2 actual
Risk Factors
- Ex-provisional sales, established fleet revenue grew only 3.28% YoY, indicating growth is commissioning-led rather than like-for-like volume-driven
- Consolidated finance costs doubled YoY (+100.28%) to Rs.556.17 crore as commissioning-driven interest capitalization ends
- Trade receivables rose 62.90% vs March-26 to Rs.4,283.37 crore, consistent with discom-dues pressure
- Rs.231.30 crore provision against Teesta-IV HE Project survey & investigation CWIP due to implementation uncertainties
- Both CERC tariff orders (Parbati-II final, Subansiri interim) remain pending past guided timelines, leaving Rs.1,231.64 crore of Q2 sales provisional
- Tax expense recognized on expected Section 200(5) transition is subject to review during forthcoming quarters, an unquantified forward tax risk
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