Q2 FY27 results analysis · November 04, 2026
NLC India Ltd (NLCINDIA) Q2 FY27 Results Analysis: PAT Surges 83% On Tax Credit, EBITDA Margin Slips 559 bps
+83.2%PAT year on year, Rs. 1,328.01 Cr
Source: Quarterly results filing (BSE)
Quick summary
NLC India Ltd's Q2 FY27 numbers came in soft, with revenue of Rs. 4,732.35 Cr (+13.26% YoY) and PAT growth of +83.22% YoY. Here's a quick read of what worked, what to watch, and what management said.
Quick Details
| Results date | November 04, 2026 |
|---|---|
| Revenue (Q2) | Rs. 4,732.35 Cr (+13.26% YoY) |
| PAT (Q2) | Rs. 1,328.01 Cr (+83.22% YoY) |
| EBITDA margin | 32.47% (-559 bps YoY) |
| EPS (Q2) | Rs. 8.96 (+133.33% YoY) |
Quarter Snapshot
Revenue grew 13.26% YoY on record power demand, but fuel costs (+41.02% YoY), finance costs (+51.31%) and D&A (+32.96%) drove PBT before regulatory activity down 59.54% and EBITDA margin down ~559 bps. The reported +83% PAT surge is a Rs.714.17 crore one-time deferred-tax remeasurement credit; normalized PAT fell 19.81% YoY. Renewables (54.74% margin, +24.81% revenue) and the NIRL IPO/OFS pathway remain the quality-of-earnings lever, while CERC 2024-29 tariff orders are the pending catalyst.
Q2 FY27 Expectations vs Results
| Driver | Expected before results | What happened | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | "likely ahead YoY" on record-demand prints | +13.26% YoY consolidated | Played out |
| Margins | "compression risk on the fuel-cost line, cushioned… by volume, self-mining and regulated pass-through" | EBITDA margin 32.47% vs 38.06% YoY; fuel +41.02% YoY | Played out |
| Finance costs | "finance costs stay a live line" | +51.31% YoY | Played out |
| Tax normalization | "whether the tax line normalizes in Q2 matters as much as operations" | Tax did not normalize — one-time Rs.714.17 crore deferred-tax credit; cash tax rate 26.78% near the guided ~25%, but ETR distorted at (185.8)% | Partially |
| CERC 2024-29 orders unresolved in window | Billing "on the 2019-24 basis" expected to run through the quarter | Confirmed by the filing; two FY2019-24 truing-up orders landed late in the quarter | Played out |
| Watch: fuel-cost bridge (procurement vs realization) | Watch-list item | Not quantified in the filing — remains open for the call | Not observable |
| Watch: TANGEDCO receivables/aging | Watch-list item | Not addressed in the filing — remains open | Not observable |
| Watch: 708.96 MW transfer, NIRL IPO, dividend, bonds | Watch-list items | Phase II addendum signed 3 Sep 2026 (Rs.853.97 crore); NIRL OFS approved; Rs.1.50/share interim dividend declared; bonds up to Rs.2,500 crore approved | Played out |
Read our full results preview.
Management Guidance vs Delivery
| What management said | Where | What happened | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY27 capex Rs.23,601 crore (within the FY26–30 plan of Rs.1,17,000 crore) | Company's disclosed FY26–30 capital-expenditure plan (annual plan in company communications) | H1 consolidated capex Rs.3,895.33 crore = 16.5% of the FY27 plan — H2-weighted execution needed | Too Early |
| Improvement in sales growth and PAT vs the then-current year | Management directional outlook, Q1 FY26 earnings call | H1 revenue +18.05% YoY; H1 PAT +12.81% YoY (reported); normalized H1 PAT Rs.1,017.56 crore | On Track on the reported leg; the normalized leg trails |
| 8 GW renewables by 2028 | Company growth targets (2028/2030/2047) | RE segment revenue +24.81% YoY; multiple wind/BESS LOAs in Sep–Oct 2026; MW commissioned not disclosed in the filing | Too Early |
| Bonds/debentures up to Rs.2,500 crore | Board outcome communication, 4 Nov 2026 | Approved | Met |
| NIRL IPO/OFS | Board outcome communication, 4 Nov 2026; in-principle approval 12 Jan 2026 | OFS of up to 10 crore NIRL shares approved as part of proposed IPO | On Track |
| Efforts to meet commitments and timelines | Q3 FY26 earnings call (CMD) | 708.96 MW BTA Phase II addendum signed 3 Sep 2026; NIRL JVs incorporated in the quarter; dividend/bonds approved on schedule | Confirmed |
| Regulated-tariff billing insulates the model pending 2024-29 orders | Filing note (management commentary in the filing) | Billing continued under 2019-24 CERC orders through Q2; Rs.121.33 crore Q2 regulatory income recognized; two truing-up orders received | Confirmed |
| Methanol project viability challenged (cost escalation, market prices) | Prior management commentary | Not addressed in this filing | Too Early |
Key Investment Insights
Key Positives
- Consolidated revenue grew 13.26% YoY to Rs.4,732.35 crore; H1 revenue +18.05% YoY
- Power-Renewables segment revenue grew 24.81% YoY with segment result up 13.58% and 54.74% margin, the only segment with result growth
- Reported PAT grew 83.22% YoY to Rs.1,328.01 crore (inflated by Rs.714.17 crore deferred-tax remeasurement credit)
- H1 consolidated CFO of Rs.2,771.70 crore covered H1 PAT 1.57x
- BTA Phase II of 708.96 MW renewable assets to NIRL signed for Rs.853.97 crore; Rs.2,000 crore invested in NIRL on 12 Oct 2026 (total Rs.5,119.75 crore)
- Board approved interim dividend of Rs.1.50/share (~Rs.208 crore, 15.06% payout), bonds up to Rs.2,500 crore, additional 660 MW Ghatampur unit, and NIRL OFS of up to 10 crore shares
- Two CERC truing-up orders received: BTPS (Rs.76.02 crore unbilled income) and TPS-I Expansion
- Employee costs (-4.43% YoY) and other expenses (+3.93% YoY) grew slower than revenue
Risk Factors
- Cost of fuel consumed rose 41.02% YoY, three times thermal revenue growth (+10.79%), compressing thermal segment margin to 9.54% from 14.25%
- PBT before regulatory activity fell 59.54% YoY; normalized PAT of Rs.581.23 crore is down 19.81% YoY
- EBITDA margin compressed ~559 bps YoY to 32.47% (with-reg basis)
- Finance costs rose 51.31% YoY; interest service coverage fell to 3.73x from 6.08x
- 100% provision of Rs.1,537.12 crore against BGRESL/NUPPL recoverables; NCI swung from +Rs.59.68 crore to Rs.(52.66) crore
- Changes in inventories swung Rs.217.72 crore negatively YoY (Rs.104.80 crore charge vs Rs.(112.92) crore credit)
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