Q2 FY27 results analysis · November 12, 2026

NMDC Ltd Q2 FY27 Results Analysis: Margin Misses Guidance By 530 bps, PAT Falls 1.64%

−1.6%PAT year on year, Rs. 1,666.67 Cr

Cofacto ResearchPublished November 12, 20265 min readNegative read

Quick summary

NMDC Ltd's Q2 FY27 numbers came in soft, with revenue of Rs. 6,638.23 Cr (+6.03% YoY) and PAT growth of -1.64% YoY. Here's a quick read of what worked, what to watch, and what management said.

Quick Details

Results date	November 12, 2026
Revenue (Q2)	Rs. 6,638.23 Cr (+6.03% YoY)
PAT (Q2)	Rs. 1,666.67 Cr (-1.64% YoY)
EBITDA margin	36.70% (-139 bps YoY)
EPS (Q2)	Rs. 1.90 (-1.55% YoY)

Quarter Snapshot

Q2 FY27 revenue grew 6.03% YoY on Iron Ore strength (+11.61%) and the Nagarnar pellet ramp, but EBITDA margin of 36.70% missed management's 42-43% FY27 guidance by ~530-630 bps and PAT fell 1.64% YoY. Working capital is absorbing a production-offtake imbalance (inventories +60.81% vs Mar-26; Apr-Oct sales -1.72% vs production +22.10%) and H1 ECL provisions jumped to Rs.554.10 Cr on RINL/NSL receivables. Execution vs guidance is weak across margin, capex (15.96% of the Rs.6,000 Cr guide), and production pace, with the Rs.16,188.56 Cr Karnataka tax overhang unresolved.

Q2 FY27 Expectations vs Results

Driver	Expected before results	What happened	Verdict
Revenue	"in-line to behind, with offtake the swing factor"	+6.03% YoY, −2.31% QoQ	Played out
Realization	"most of Q2 was priced off lower list levels than Q1"	Q2 physicals/realization not disclosed in the filing; margin outcome (36.70% vs 41.45% Q1) consistent	Not observable in the filing
Margins	"Margins / costs — compressing"	EBITDA margin 36.70% (vs 41.45% Q1, 38.09% YoY); 42–43% guide missed	Played out
Royalty/levies	levies "tied to sale value", ~30% YoY higher	+30.00% YoY; 42.63% of revenue	Played out
Inventory build	"the ore pile-up enters Q2 already elevated"	Further Rs.335.86 Cr build; inventories +60.81% vs Mar-26	Played out
Production on track, sales weak	"production momentum is strong… But offtake is the constraint"	Per monthly updates: production +22.10% vs sales −1.72% Apr–Oct — monthly updates, not the filing	Played out
Karnataka tax	"the litigation arc is live"	Filing updates exposure to Rs.16,188.56 Cr (filing wins over the note's Rs.15,785.72 Cr); S.9D relief argued	Played out
Capex run-rate	"needs a sharp H2 step-up"	H1 = 15.96% of the Rs.6,000 Cr guide	Played out

Read our full results preview.

Management Guidance vs Delivery

What management said	Where	What happened	Verdict
EBITDA margin 42–43% FY27 (company basis)	Q4 FY26 concall	Q2: 36.70%; H1: 39.10% — running ~530–630 bps below the band	Missed
60 MT iron ore production FY27	Q4 FY26 concall / FY26 annual report	Apr–Oct: 32.32 MT = 53.87% of target; ~5.54 MT/month needed Nov–Mar vs 4.62 delivered	Stretch
Capex Rs.6,000 Cr FY27	Q4 FY26 concall	H1: Rs.932.60 Cr standalone / Rs.957.61 Cr consolidated = 15.96% of the guide — needs a steep H2 step-up	Missed
Iron ore prices "fairly range-bound"	Q4 FY26 concall	Two list-price cuts (10 Jul, 8 Aug; >7% cumulative) then a partial Rs.150/t lump hike on 9 Sep (per pre-call note, web-sourced, dated)	Off track so far
NSL dues liquidation (from Rs.1,800 Cr, 16–18 months)	Q4 FY26 concall	Demerger balance Rs.1,501.39 Cr at Sep-30, down from Rs.1,601.39 Cr at Q1	On Track
Rohne mine opens late Q3, no production this fiscal	Q4 FY26 concall	Not yet due	Too Early
FY26 final dividend Rs.1/share	AGM 28 Sep 2026	Paid October 2026	Met
"Steel trading activities were temporary and have ceased"	Q4 FY26 concall	Purchase of stock-in-trade nil in Q2 and H1 (vs Rs.430.91 Cr in Q2 FY26); HR Coil revenue nil pending approvals	Confirmed
Bailadila cost cut (Rs.1,000→Rs.800/t) to offset wage pressure	Q4 FY26 concall	Employee costs +23.39% YoY (base effect; +1.86% QoQ); unit cost data not in the filing — unit costs not disclosed	Too Early
Margin gains from value-addition (pellets)	Management commentary in filings	Pellet segment margin fell to 5.88% in the ramp-up quarter	Not yet visible

Key Numbers, Quarter by Quarter

Metric	Q2 FY26	Q3 FY26	Q4 FY26	Q1 FY27	Q2 FY27
Production (LT)	102.08	146.84	162.72	151.17	not disclosed in the filing — remains open for the call
Sales (LT)	107.16	127.07	152.99	117.30	not disclosed
Avg realization (Rs./T)	4,973	4,681	4,759	5,548	not disclosed

Key Investment Insights

Key Positives

Revenue from operations grew 6.03% YoY to Rs.6,638.23 Cr
Iron Ore segment revenue grew 11.61% YoY to Rs.5,956.52 Cr with segment result up 6.78% YoY
Pellets/other segment revenue grew 40.03% YoY to Rs.884.70 Cr as the Nagarnar pellet plant ramped (maiden pellet production 27 Sep 2026)
FCF positive at Rs.1,773.39 Cr in H1 (CFO Rs.2,705.99 Cr less capex Rs.932.60 Cr)
Net worth rose 13.26% YoY to Rs.36,591.79 Cr; cash and bank balances of Rs.14,917.26 Cr cover current borrowings
NSL demerger receivable reduced to Rs.1,501.39 Cr from Rs.1,601.39 Cr at Q1, on track with the 16-18 month liquidation plan
Steel trading activities confirmed ceased; purchase of stock-in-trade nil in Q2 and H1

Risk Factors

EBITDA margin of 36.70% missed management's FY27 guidance of 42-43% by ~530-630 bps; H2 would need a 44.9-46.9% margin to reach the band
PAT fell 1.64% YoY and 16.95% QoQ to Rs.1,666.67 Cr despite revenue growth
Provision for bad & doubtful advances of Rs.554.10 Cr in H1 vs Rs.52.04 Cr a year ago, driven by RINL (ECL Rs.473.96 Cr) and NSL receivables
Inventories up 60.81% vs Mar-26 to Rs.4,056.06 Cr with Sep sales -9.54% and Oct sales -11.57% YoY; Apr-Oct sales -1.72% vs production +22.10%
H1 capex of Rs.932.60 Cr is only 15.96% of the Rs.6,000 Cr FY27 guidance
Karnataka Mineral Rights Tax contingent liability of Rs.16,188.56 Cr remains unresolved pending Presidential assent

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Disclaimer: This results analysis is published for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security.