ACME Solar Holdings Ltd (ACMESOLAR) Q1 FY27 Earnings Call: Raises Capex Guidance to Rs. 15,000-20,000 Cr, Accelerates 10 GWh BESS Target

ACME Solar Holdings Ltd held its Q1 FY27 earnings call on July 29, 2026. Here's a quick read of what management said — performance, strategy, and the outlook ahead.

Record Revenue, Margins & Plant Performance

• Rs.954 Cr revenue — Q1 FY2026-2027 revenue grew 63% YoY, with EBITDA of Rs.831 Cr (+56% YoY) and PAT of Rs.235 Cr (+80% YoY). Blended EBITDA margin landed at ~87%.
• Record plant CUF of 30.9% — vs 28.5% in Q1 FY2025-2026, driving power generation up 23% YoY to 2,020 MUs. Management attributed the improvement to continuous repowering of existing plants.
• BESS revenue of Rs.226 Cr — contributed in Q1 FY2026-2027, with ~85% from short-term contracts and the balance from merchant sales. Annual EBITDA-to-capex yield for BESS exceeded 20%.
• Core EBITDA margin of 91% — for the base business in Q1 FY2026-2027, consistent with the 88-91% range recorded in each of the last four quarters of FY2025-2026.
• 2.3 GWh BESS commissioned — in Q1 FY2026-2027, taking cumulative commissioned BESS capacity to 3.62 GWh, representing ~40% of India's cumulative commissioned BESS capacity.

10 GWh Target, Capex Surge & Supply Chain

• >10 GWh BESS by end-FY2026-2027 — management brought forward the commissioning target from calendar 2027, with >15 GWh of batteries already ordered from CATL and BYD within budget. Daily BESS capacity sold on short-term contracts is expected to reach 10 GWh by March 2027, scaling monthly from the current 3.6 GWh.
• Capex guidance raised to Rs.15,000-20,000 Cr — for FY2026-2027, up sharply from the earlier Rs.3,000 Cr guided in Q1. The increase reflects accelerated BESS deployment and renewable capacity additions.
• 1.5 GW contracted renewable capacity — expected to be commissioned in FY2026-2027, subject to grid availability. Management also contemplates increasing total capacity beyond 10 GW by 2030, "leveraging new market opportunities" (verbatim from segment).
• Total portfolio of 8,070 MW — requiring ~20 GWh of battery storage. The company signed 600 MW of FDRE/hybrid PPAs with SECI during Q1 FY2026-2027.
• Battery procurement accelerated — ahead of a "6% export tax imposed by China effective January 2027" (third-party claim, verbatim). Management expects savings on other components (PCS) and hedging gains to offset potential cost increases.
• Each new BESS unit — operates on merchant for its first ~1 year after early capex (early commissioning strategy), then transitions to a 25-year PPA. Only one existing 300 MWh plant remains uncontracted for the long term, awaiting a future bid.

PPAs, Order Book, Hedging & Cost Structure

• ~85% of PPA-signed portfolio financed — as of Q1 FY2026-2027, including Rs.6,000 Cr of financing secured for 700 MW of under-construction FDRE projects. The total PPA-signed portfolio stands at 8,070 MW.
• ~90% of the 20 GWh battery capacity contracted — with Rs.1,400 Cr of short-term PPAs (tenure 6-9 months, generally <1 year) locked in at realizations of Rs.8-10/kWh. The remaining 10% is expected to be contracted shortly.
• 70-80% of the 10 GWh BESS capacity — already contracted as of Q1 FY2026-2027, with the remaining 20-30% available for further monetisation. Management guided FY2026-2027 revenue from battery storage at ~Rs.1,400 Cr.
• $300 million hedged — at Rs.89-90/USD, with some tranches at Rs.92-93/USD. This hedge is expected to offset a potential 5-10% increase in battery capital costs from lithium carbonate price volatility.
• Capital cost for BESS — capitalised at ~Rs.93 lakhs/MW (~$100/kWh) in Q1 FY2026-2027. Future orders may see a 5-10% increase, though management expects savings on PCS and other components to mitigate the impact.
• Battery depreciation policy — set at 20 years. Q1 FY2026-2027 battery interest was Rs.32 Cr and depreciation Rs.27 Cr.

Short-term Outlook, Cost Structure & Visibility

• Core EBITDA margin guidance of 88-92% — for the next 3-4 quarters (FY2026-2027), with potential improvement from higher-realisation FDRE projects. Q1 FY2026-2027 EBITDA margins were ~82% for the BESS segment; management expects similar full-year margins with possible variation of 2-5%.
• ~Rs.1,400 Cr revenue from short-term capacity — expected in FY2026-2027 from ~80% tied-up capacity. Management said "Rs.1,400 crore-plus is a fair assumption for the next 2-3 years" (FY2027-2028 and FY2028-2029), subject to the PPA pipeline.
• 10 GWh base capacity for short-term market — management guided that "10 gigawatt-hour base capacity will be available for the short-term market per year over the next 3-4 years (FY2027-2028 to FY2029-2030)".
• Analyst extrapolation of Rs.2,000-2,500 Cr — potential annual revenue from FY2027-2028 onwards if ~10 GWh of open capacity is added each year. Management only confirmed current deliveries and did not endorse the extrapolation.
• Demand drivers for short-term pricing — management cited ~300 GWh of current peak demand, duck-curve effects from rising rooftop and KUSUM solar, and limited hydro/gas/pumped-storage peaking capacity. Management does not foresee a slowdown in short-term pricing over the next 3 years.

Demand Drivers, Policy Shifts & New Segments

• Merchant BESS market depth ~300 GWh — management estimates current merchant market for battery storage at ~300 GWh, expecting it to grow to 400-500 GWh and potentially reach 1 TWh, driven by the duck curve from rooftop solar and KUSUM additions.
• Government-backed bids expected to revive in 6-9 months — SECI and state peak power bids are anticipated to resume after a period of realignment. The company focuses on CTU-connected projects to maintain flexibility and target mid-teen to high-teen returns.
• CERC's fleet-based merchant conversion option — management views this positively, expecting it to "free up grid connectivity for projects lacking signed PPAs and support future growth" (third-party claim, verbatim).
• Bidding activity shifting toward multi-source bids — in FY2026-2027, SECI is expected to issue tenders for PSP, wind, 4-hour peak power, FDRE, and CFD rather than pure solar. Management noted each MW of round-the-clock power could equate to 4 MW of solar capacity, favouring serious integrators.
• Exploring C&I/data center segment — management is building a team and focusing on profitability metrics, but no concrete plans have been disclosed. Chairman Manoj Kumar Upadhyay cited EV growth and data centers as peak-power demand drivers, but added that profitability on both cost and pricing sides needs to be resolved before committing.

Fire Incident, Curtailment, Regulation & Technology

• Fire at Acme Suryodaya West — root-cause analysis confirmed an electrical short circuit in AC cabling, not in the BESS. Management reiterated that safety systems (AI analytics, arc-flash sensors, aerosol suppression) contained the incident.
• Ministry requested no early commissioning — due to curtailment in Rajasthan. The "Ministry requested the industry not to commission early due to curtailment in Rajasthan" (third-party claim, verbatim). Management will not commission on temporary GNA, as it is detrimental to shareholders and lenders.
• Curtailment minimal at ~1% of revenue — in Q1 FY2026-2027 from state-based projects. Management plans to add battery storage to state projects to eliminate curtailment, enabled by a "recent ministry circular allowing surplus renewable generation to be stored in batteries" (third-party claim, verbatim).
• Regulatory efforts underway — to align state-grid curtailment provisions with central grid norms, which could further reduce curtailment risk for the company's portfolio.
• Sodium-battery technology progress — could extend battery life closer to 25-year PPA timelines, improving peak-power profitability over the longer term. Management noted this as a potential positive development but provided no timeframe.
• Acme Marigold LOA PPA delay — signing delayed due to Supreme Court proceedings on railway open access status. A bank guarantee has been submitted, and management expects to sign very shortly in FY2026-2027.