NMDC Ltd Q4 FY26 Earnings Call: Summary, Management Commentary & Outlook

NMDC Ltd held its Q4 FY26 earnings call on May 29, 2026. Here's a quick read of what management said — performance, strategy, and the outlook ahead.

Q4 FY26 Snapshot — All-Time Highs Across the Board

• FY 2025-26 iron ore production crossed 53 Mt— a record, with sales revenue reachingRs.31,000 Crand PAT growing11% YoYdespite sluggish prices during the year.
• Standalone iron ore EBITDA margin held at 42%— consolidated EBITDA fell to 33% (from 42% QoQ) due to a one-off steel trading arrangement for NMDC Steel; management confirmed the steel trading was a cash-flow support measure thatwill not recur in Q1 FY 2026-27.
• May 2026 set a record monthly production of 5.3 Mt— compared with 4.4 Mt in the same month of FY 2025-26, underscoring the production momentum entering FY 2026-27.
• FY 2025-26 capex hit an all-time high of Rs.3,300 Cr(excluding land acquisition) — management plans to substantially double capex in FY 2026-27 to support the expansion trajectory.
• Q4 FY 2025-26 "exceeded all expectations"— management stated that production, revenue, PBT, PAT, and sales volumes all surpassed internal targets for the quarter.

Capacity Ramp-Up — New Mines Driving the 100 Mt Pathway

• FY 2026-27 production guided at 60 Mt— comprising ~58.5 Mt from NMDC standalone and ~1.5 Mt from NSL (NCL), with incremental contributions from Deposit 4 (~1 Mt), Deposit 13 (~0.5 Mt), Deposit 14 (~2 Mt), NMZ (~2 Mt), Kumaraswamy (~3.3 Mt extra), and Deposit 5 (~2 Mt extra).
• Long-term target of "100 million tonnes by end of the decade (2030)"— management reaffirmed this goal, noting that infrastructure for the incremental 40 Mt is under execution or at the final award stage.
• Deposit 4 (peak 7 Mt) to start commercial mining in Q2 FY 2026-27— guidance of ~1 Mt in FY 2026-27 and ~2 Mt in FY 2027-28, with full ramp-up in 1.5–2 years.
• Deposit 13 (peak ~10 Mt, expandable to 20–21 Mt in 4–5 years)— mining expected to begin in Q2 FY 2026-27 subject to clearances, contributing ~0.5 Mt in FY 2026-27 and ~2 Mt in FY 2027-28.
• Deposit 5 capacity to increase from 12 Mt to 20 Mt— the bottleneck (downhill conveyor) is to be commissioned by June–July 2026, enabling 12 Mt production in FY 2026-27.
• Kirandul to rise from 21 Mt (FY26 actual) to 30 Mt; Bacheli from 18–19 Mt to 35 Mt— Karnataka operations remain stable at ~17 Mt due to regulatory constraints; management is confident of reaching 110 Mt (potentially 100 Mt) by end of the decade.
• KOCL pellet plant produced 2.4 Mt in FY 2025-26— targeting 3 Mt in FY 2026-27 and eventually 3.3 Mt; management aims for DR-grade pellets (≥67% Fe), with clarity expected by Q2 FY 2026-27 (current premium for DR-grade pellets is $20–30/tonne).

Coal, Critical Minerals & Overseas Expansion Gathering Pace

• Tokisud thermal coal mine (2.3 Mt peak capacity) commenced production in May 2026— guidance of ~1 Mt of coal in FY 2026-27, with revenue contribution estimated at Rs.500–600 Cr in the first year (management cautioned these are approximate figures dependent on auction prices and local sales).
• Rohne coking coal mine (8 Mt peak) expected to begin by end of Q3 FY 2026-27— subject to regulatory approvals; commercial production likely in Q3 FY 2026-27 with peak output achieved in 1.5–2 years; no production expected in FY 2026-27.
• MOU with Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation for rare earth mining— management confirmed advanced talks to jointly develop a rare earth mine and processing facilities.
• Rs.2,000–3,000 Cr earmarked for overseas asset acquisitions in FY 2026-27— management is aggressively pursuing overseas critical mineral assets; a couple of deals are in "very advanced stages" and expected to conclude in FY 2026-27 (details undisclosed due to confidentiality agreements).
• Australian gold operations (Kovaree mine) at break-even in FY 2026-27— management has curtailed production to focus on exploration and proving additional resources; a small refinery is planned in Australia once sufficient volume is proven via adjacent mining leases.
• A subsidiary dedicated to rare earth and critical minerals has been established— management expects a breakthrough soon (timeline unspecified).

Margin Resilience, Record Capex & Cost Discipline

• EBITDA margin guided at 42–43% in FY 2026-27— management expects iron ore prices to remain range-bound with no significant volatility, supporting margin stability.
• Capex of Rs.5,000–6,000 Cr in FY 2026-27, rising to Rs.7,000–10,000 Cr per annum in FY 2027-28 and FY 2028-29— total capex programme of Rs.30,000–50,000 Cr over the next three years (FY 2026-27 through FY 2028-29) to support capacity expansion to 100 Mt.
• Production cost at Bacheli (Bailadila) reduced to ~Rs.800/tonne in FY 2025-26— down from ~Rs.1,000/tonne; further efficiency gains are expected to offset cost pressures.
• No debt planned for the near term— FY 2026-27 capex and acquisition requirements to be funded through internal resources; leverage may be considered only if large global acquisitions materialise later in the year.
• Pay revision for non-executive employees provided for from 1 Jan 2026— no material impact; for ~1,100 executives, provision starts from 1 Jan 2027 with marginal impact expected to be offset by cost savings.
• NSL receivables reduced to ~Rs.1,800 Cr (from Rs.2,500 Cr pre-demerger)— Rs.100 Cr is being liquidated each month, with full recovery expected in 16–18 months; RINL receivables carry no perceived risk as RINL is a "100% government-owned company" (timeline for RINL recovery not provided).

Railway Doubling, Slurry Pipeline & Branded Iron Ore

• Railway line doubling (131 km) completion by December 2026— two sections remain: one expected by end of May 2026, and the final section (Bhansi–Bacheli) by December 2026 due to bridge construction.
• Evacuation capacity to rise immediately to 40 Mt per annum— from the current 28–30 Mt; with further railway investment beyond Jagdalpur, capacity could reach 50–60 Mt via this route.
• Management clarified the 60 Mt production target for FY 2026-27 is not contingent on full railway completion— 60 Mt can be dispatched without it, butthe 100 Mt target requires it.
• Slurry pipeline (15 Mt capacity) from Bacheli to Nagarnar in pre-commissioning trials— commissioning expected by June–July 2026, along with the associated pellet plant and grinding mill.
• Board sanctioned Rs.3,000 Cr for a blending yard at Vizag— to produce branded iron ore with tight specifications (first in India) within 2–2.5 years; future plans include a pellet plant and a critical mineral processing zone (including a possible lithium refinery), though the route for the slurry pipeline (Nagarnar–Vizag vs. Kirandul–Vizag) is yet to be finalised.
• NMDC's phosphorus content at 0.05% cited as a key quality advantage— management noted that customers including JSW, AMNS (new 10 Mt plant near Vizag), and JSPL are expanding capacity, and their own mining is insufficient to meet requirements, underpinning demand even for 100 Mt of production.