Tata Power Q1 FY27 Earnings Call: Targets Rs. 30,000 Cr Rooftop Revenue, Mundra Plant to Operate Until 2038 (TATAPOWER)

Tata Power Company Ltd held its Q1 FY27 earnings call on July 27, 2026. Here's a quick read of what management said — performance, strategy, and the outlook ahead.

Record Quarter Extends 27th Consecutive Growth Streak

• PAT of Rs.1,401 crore — rose 11% YoY in Q1 FY 2026-2027, marking the 27th consecutive quarter of PAT and EBITDA growth for the company.
• EBITDA of Rs.4,209 crore — up 8% YoY in Q1 FY 2026-2027, supported by broad-based expansion across renewable, transmission, and manufacturing segments.
• 4-year revenue CAGR of 8% — with EBITDA CAGR of 12% and PAT CAGR of 7% over the same period, reflecting sustained margin expansion.
• Net debt-to-underlying EBITDA at 3.41x — and net debt-to-equity at 1.25x; both metrics within internal guardrails as of Q1 FY 2026-2027.
• Coal profits contributed Rs.225 crore PAT — in Q1 FY 2026-2027, partially offset by Mundra generation losses recovered via the STPA mechanism (fixed cost + coal pass-through), with management targeting no loss on ROE.

Module Production Crosses 1 GW; Rooftop Surges Toward Rs.30,000 Cr Target

• TP Solar module output exceeded 1,000 MW — in Q1 FY 2026-2027 for the first time, with the plant operating at full capacity; cell output dipped temporarily due to a line change for higher-efficiency products, with yield expected to improve by Q2 FY 2026-2027.
• TP Solar margin sustained at ~25% — in Q1 FY 2026-2027; management expects consistency as the plant stabilizes, citing ability to command a premium for high-efficiency cells despite new industry capacities.
• Rooftop solar revenue reached Rs.1,350 crore — in Q1 FY 2026-2027 on 371 MW installed; order inflow stood at Rs.1,091 crore on 387 MW. Management guided for 60-70% growth in FY 2026-2027.
• Targeting Rs.30,000 crore rooftop revenue by FY 2028-2029 — management states it is "targets crossing Rs.30,000 crore in rooftop solar revenue by FY 2028-2029, earlier than the initial 2030 target," versus Rs.4,800 crore in FY 2025-2026.
• Market share ambition: 12-13% to 25% — management aims to nearly double rooftop solar market share within the same timeframe (FY 2028-2029); the next-largest competitor holds only 2%.
• Monthly installations surged from 1,000 to 30,000 units — over the past two years (Q1 FY 2026-2027); management sees headroom with only 40 lakh consumers out of 250 million having adopted rooftop solar in India.
• Renewable capacity at 6.7 GW — targeting 2.5 GW additions in FY 2026-2027 to cross 9 GW by year-end; commissioned 226 MW in Q1 FY 2026-2027 with line of sight for ~500 MW in Q2 FY 2026-2027.

Mumbai Transmission Drives Rs.10,000 Cr Plan; Odisha Discom Faces Timing Headwinds

• Transmission segment 4-year revenue CAGR of 45% — with EBITDA CAGR of 19% and PAT CAGR of 27%; Mumbai transmission plans a Rs.10,000 crore investment over the next 5 years, with regulatory approval received and projects under implementation.
• Odisha Discom PAT grew 6% in Q1 FY 2026-2027 — with million units sold up 10.4% due to hot summer; management attributed muted growth to delayed government payments for Panchayati Raj departments, a government-mandated no-disconnection policy during the heatwave, and a one-month billing cycle, with recovery expected in Q2 FY 2026-2027.
• Delhi Discom lower collections due to seasonal billing cycles — management explained high summer consumption will be billed later, calling the issue non-structural and noting performance normalizes over a 12-month cycle.
• TBCB projects reported 13% EBITDA margin in Q1 FY 2026-2027 — because all projects are still under construction; current revenue comes from lease accounting for engineering work, not operational asset profits. First projects expected to commence contributions from Q2 FY 2026-2027.
• Rithala plant closed since 2016 — fully settled with provisions made, hence not listed in operating capacity; tariff and depreciation issues led to the closure.

Rs.25,000 Cr Capex Plan on Track; Pumped Hydro & Mundra Anchor Long-Term Growth

• Q1 FY 2026-2027 capex of Rs.5,300 crore — against the full-year plan of Rs.25,000 crore (50% allocated to renewables); management reported clear line of sight on execution. Q2 FY 2026-2027 capex guided at Rs.6,000-6,500 crore, with nearly half for renewables as 800-900 MW of capacity is targeted for commissioning.
• Pumped storage pipeline of 2,800 MW — targeted for completion in FY 2029 and FY 2031; a 330 MW unit won via SECI bid, and the balance 1,800 MW project work begins later in FY 2026-2027, with commissioning starting CY 2029. Management plans to announce the next set of projects within 12 months.
• Mundra plant expected to operate continuously until 2038 — operating under Section 11; cabinet approvals expected from three states in August 2026 and a fourth by September 2026. The supplementary PPA is cost-reflective with no margin and no return on equity.
• Kholongchhu hydro project (Bhutan) PPA signed — with regulatory approval, "expected operational in CY 2030," per management.
• 1,125 MW road drilling project — financial closure expected within Q2 FY 2026-2027 with PFC, IFC, and other lenders.
• Nuclear: preliminary work underway — land, geotechnical studies, and water availability assessments in progress; a firm plan is subject to government rules notification.
• Q1 capex allocation: 40-45% to renewables — capex also accelerating for pumped storage and transmission, including a Rs.2,000 crore, 2,000 km+ pipeline for Mumbai transmission.

Tata Projects Nears Legacy Clean-Up; Solar EPC Wind-Down Weighs on Comparables

• Tata Projects widening losses due to final 10% of legacy projects — Dr. Sinha expects a potential impact for "possibly one more quarter" before a turnaround, supported by a strong pipeline of orders from global marquee clients.
• Solar EPC business discontinued in FY 2026-2027 — management is wrapping up remaining work and booking losses (compared to ~Rs.100 crore PAT in FY 2025-2026 from EPC); resources repurposed to the in-house 5.5 GW project pipeline.
• International coal prices rose 5-7% in Q1 FY 2026-2027 — management expects a further uptick of up to 5% over the next nine months (through Q1 FY 2027-2028). KPC has met Indonesian domestic market obligations; no major disruptions expected from new regulations.
• Industry-wide RE curtailment of ~5% in Q1 FY 2026-2027 — management expects this to settle in the "next few quarters" as transmission and evacuation lines progress.
• Government confirmed ALMM 2 continues — "Government clarified that ALMM 2 continues for rooftop and utility-scale projects, with a special proviso for certain projects only"; management confirmed their commitment to building ingot and wafer capacity remains on track.
• RE auction volumes slowed in Q1 FY 2026-2027 — management explained state discoms are moving from central agency (SECI) tenders toward customized FDRE (round-the-clock renewable) bids, causing a temporary dip.
• Pumped storage to use hybrid contract model — part annuity-based long-term bids, part bilateral negotiations with large industrial customers (e.g., Tata Steel); management is avoiding central agency PPAs and building directly to states.

Clear Line of Sight on FY27 Targets; Regulatory Milestones Define Near-Term Catalysts

• Rooftop solar revenue guided at 60-70% growth for FY 2026-2027 — with a long-term target of Rs.30,000 crore by FY 2028-2029; management sees no threat to distribution or IPP businesses, as those models will evolve with technology.
• Renewable capacity to cross 9 GW by end of FY 2026-2027 — driven by 2.5 GW of new additions; Q2 FY 2026-2027 commissioning target of ~500 MW (already ~226 MW completed in Q1).
• Mundra: cabinet approvals from three states in August 2026, fourth by September 2026 — plant expected to run continuously until 2038 under Section 11, with cost-reflective PPA and no ROE.
• TP Solar cell yield improvement expected by Q2 FY 2026-2027 — after a temporary decline due to a line change for higher-efficiency products; module production already at full capacity (1,000 MW+ in Q1).
• Next set of pumped storage projects to be announced within 12 months — complementing the current 2,800 MW pipeline (FY 2029 and FY 2031 completion).
• Risk: coal price upside of up to 5% over next nine months — through Q1 FY 2027-2028, which could pressure Mundra recovery; management noted KPC has met domestic obligations, limiting regulatory disruption.
• Risk: RE curtailment expected to persist for a few more quarters — though management expects settlement as transmission infrastructure catches up; industry-wide curtailment was ~5% in Q1 FY 2026-2027.